College graduate's partisan bias on complex issues
The Pew Research poll showing a greater divide between college graduate Republicans and Democrats than the non-college graduates on the issue of climate change is pretty interesting. What could be behind this divide? I have several guesses. Unfortunately, polls like this never seem to uncover the underlying reasons for the results, but here are my thoughts on what I think might be possible causes:
1. College graduates are more likely to do their own research. There's nearly an unlimited number of websites on both sides of the global warming debate right or wrong for people to justify their opinions.
2. College graduates are more likely to accept the common wisdom of their particular ideology. They are acclimated to a culture of accepting the established view of the powers that be - first the educational institution then the political party.
3. College graduates are more likely see the world in shades of gray so it is easier to justify reinterpreting the facts to fit their ideology.
4. None, some, or all of the above.
Climate change is such a complex issue that while, as far as I know, nearly all climatologist agree that the earth is warming mostly due to human influence, it is hard for climatologists to know for certain what the impact of climate change will be. That's one reason why I don't expect the general public, college educated or not, to be able to put aside their personal biases and base their judgement solely on the evidence when the nature of the issue is too complex for even climatology experts to completely understand let alone articulate in a way the average person can understand.
I wonder what the divide is between college graduates on more well defined and established scientific issues like evolution. I could be wrong but my guess is that the more educated, the more on the side of evolution a person would be despite the political persuasion.
Googling quick;y, I find a summary of polling data at this website:
http://www.religioustolerance.org/ev_publi.htm
Not many polls break out education levels. Of the two here that do one, a Gallup poll from 1991 finds a much higher rate of belief in evolution among college graduates than among those with no high school diploma. The editors interpret this as follows:
"These results show how difficult it is for people to maintain their beliefs in creationism in college."
But another poll further down the page (Gallup 2007), is less clear-cut. This poll divides people into four education levels and reports answers as follows. (The question was, "Do you, personally, believe in evolution or not?")
74% of people with post-graduate degrees believe in "evolution," as do:
48% of college graduates
50% of adults with some college
41% of adults with high school or less.
I notice that there is a slight drop in reported belief in evolution between those with some college and those with college degrees. Finishing college undermines belief in evolution? Hard to believe (and the difference is too small to be very good evidence of anything.)
Looking around briefly, it seems that other polls do tend to find a linear relationship (more education, less belief in creationism).Lotta polls here:
http://ncse.com/news/2010/03/polling-creationismevolution-controversy-005388
and here:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/21811/american-beliefs-evolution-vs-bibles-explanation-human-origins.aspx
If you're interested.